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THE BridgeNews FORUM: On farming, farm policy
and related agricultural issues.
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* A Review Would Surely Reveal That For The Livestock Industry, The
Foot-And-Mouth Outbreak Is Just Another Pothole On A Poorly Kept Road*
By David Walker, agricultural economist
BridgeNews
NORWICH, England--After eight weeks of intense media scrutiny, the
first signs the British foot-and-mouth outbreak is coming under control
are emerging, if government statistics are to be believed.
Some minds are starting to focus on the future of the livestock
industry after the outbreak. While Environment Minister Michael Meacher
had his knuckles rapped by the prime minister's office when he suggested
there would be a post-mortem, there surely will be one.
The event has been too big and the government's performance too
suspect for the issue to be conveniently forgotten.
Any review will surely reveal that for the livestock industry, the
foot-and-mouth outbreak is just another pothole on a poorly kept road.
About 75,000 pigs were lost to the swine fever outbreak last year--it
was limited to 16 cases and done and dusted in six months, which is a
credit to the now much maligned ministry of agriculture. Some 178,000
cattle have been lost to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow
disease) since it was first recognized in 1986.
It has just about been put to bed, although variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob
disease, the human equivalent still has the potential to cause the
industry grief.
In eight weeks of the foot-and-mouth outbreak, about 1.6 million head
of livestock have been condemned to slaughter. Perhaps another million
head will be slaughtered on voluntary animal welfare grounds.
But last year, 3.6 million head livestock were simply lost to economic
conditions. Between Dec. 1, 1999, and Dec. 1, 2000, the United Kingdom's
livestock population was reduced by 2.1 million sheep, 1.1 million pigs
and 0.4 million cattle. While the decline in the livestock population
during 2000 may have been above average, it was not exceptional.
Since 1989, when the BSE epidemic was in its early stages, the U.K.
livestock population has declined by 30 percent, and at a rate of 1.8
million head a year.
This has gone largely unnoticed. But it is a far grimmer legacy for
the industry than foot-and-mouth outbreak. This silent cull has provided,
of course, little out of the ordinary to be photographed or filmed and has
passed virtually unnoticed by the mainstream media.
But for those involved the losses were every bit as traumatic as the
losses from foot-and-mouth. The foot-and-mouth victim has the solace of
bad luck and public sympathy. The victim of the silent cull is on his own,
and must deal with the inference of inadequacy and failure on his part.
The structure and state of the industry, including that part provided
by the government, were almost certainly a contributing factor to the way
the disease took hold and spread so quickly.
Much of British livestock production utilizes land either too wet or
too hilly to accommodate anything more than grazing. It is in certain
economic respects similar to the high plains of North America--too much
rain can be almost as debilitating as too little.
Elsewhere in Europe, the pretense of truly commercial agriculture has
been largely abandoned in what are euphemistically described as "less
favored areas." Tourism rules.
In Britain, however, farming is still seen as the mainstay of hill
country. The challenge in Britain is that the weather in these areas makes
tourism a hard sell. If the weather cannot be sold, then perhaps character
can. But only if the agricultural industry that provides that character is
sustained.
Indeed, the conflict between tourism and farming is already evident as
the government attempts to balance the two interests in the context of
foot-and-mouth.
Yes, we are telling the world, the British countryside is open for
business. And no, we are not increasing the risk of disease by encouraging
people to visit the countryside.
What was evident to farmers before the outbreak was that the
government seem to have very little interest in farming beyond minimizing
costs to the exchequer.
What should have become evident to the government during the outbreak
is that it will take more than squeezing out farmers to create a mammoth
coast-to-coast theme park.
An understanding of the countryside necessary for developing a
strategy for agriculture acceptable to farmers will not come easily for
the government. It has next to no rural representation and decisions will
need to be made.
Probably the most decisive action of government for the 98 percent of
the population not involved in farming was the month's deferral of local
elections. Implicitly the national election, held at the prime minister's
call, was also delayed.
Delaying this decision for political effect will not have helped the
government's cause much in rural areas where it is in any event viewed as
a rather shallow show of understanding, even condescending. But to the 98
percent it may be viewed as a caring act worth the inconvenience.
Sadly, the gulf is developing between rural and urban folk, which is a
more serious challenge for any government than the state of the livestock
industry. If foot-and-mouth spotlights this, some good may yet come of the
outbreak. End
DAVID WALKER, an agricultural economist, lives on his family's farm
outside Norwich, England. He recently served as senior economist in London
for the Home-Grown Cereals Authority and previously was executive director
of the Alberta Grain Commission in Canada. He also maintains a Web site
at http://www.openi.co.uk/. His views are not necessarily those of BridgeNews,
whose ventures include the Internet site http://www.bridge.com/.
OPINION ARTICLES and letters to the editor are welcome. Send
submissions to Sally Heinemann, editorial director, BridgeNews, 3 World
Financial Center, 200 Vesey St., 28th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10281-1009.
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opinion@bridge.com.
EDITORS: A color photo of the author is available from KRT Photo
Service.
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